From the still-vex'd Bermoothes.
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argentina | by Marcelo | 30 Jan, 2004 at 09:26 AM | comments (0) | trackback (0)

Everybody now seems to be joining me in scratching our heads in wonderment at exactly what the Argentine government thinks it's doing in the debt negotiation talks.

Specially telling is this quote:

It was not meant to be like this. Many bondholders had hoped the government's proposal to pay back only a quarter of the $88 billion in debt defaulted on two years ago was just a bluff for the negotiating table.

Now they are not so sure.

"We're starting not to get it -- because it seems that they've crossed the line (in terms of) of their strategy being economically rational," said Hans Humes, co-chairman of the Global Committee of Argentina Creditors and a manager at the Van Eck Global Opportunity Fund, which holds more than $230 million in defaulted Argentine bonds.

He doesn't go to the level of modeling detail of my previous posts, but I bet he's using some sophisticated models of Argentina's negotiation strategy in-house... and I bet his doesn't work, either.

At this point, I'd pay good money for talking half an hour with somebody high in Argentina's negotiation team. Come to think of it, I'd be surprised if they could walk three blocks in New York without getting a few of those coffee invitations. Argentina is acting weirdly, and with so much money at the stake, we're all very curious.

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