Marcelo Rinesi's Posts

argentina | by Marcelo | 10 Mar, 2004 at 09:06 AM | comments (0) | trackback (0)
Yesterday an official announcement was given that Argentina would meet an U$D 3.07 billion payment to the IMF due this week, and that the Fund would give its seal of approval to the last review of fiscal accounts. A somewhat boring account, until you realize that this was finally brokered by the US Treasury only hours before the final deadline, avoiding a default that seemed extremely likely just a couple of days ago. The underlying difficulty, of course, remains: the seemingly unsalvable gap in the negotiations between private bond holders and the Argentine government. Stay tuned for fireworks somewhere around mid-year, I think.
venezuela | by Marcelo | 29 Feb, 2004 at 03:42 PM | comments (24) | trackback (0)
While I'm writing this, Chavez is giving a very interesting speech in a quite convulsed Venezuela. Claims of planned US/OEA invasions, references to Chapulín Colorado, [in reference to reports to Bush of Chavez lack of support] "el pendejo se lo creyó", threats of guerrilla warfare... Why is it that spanish lends itself so well to this kind of speeches?
argentina | by Marcelo | 20 Feb, 2004 at 02:26 PM | comments (4) | trackback (0)
"Argentina should not be an example of what is wrong with globalization. It should rather be an example of the importance of a properly functioning society and a strong government." Part of me wants to say "Yay!", part of me wants to add "But wait a second..."...
argentina | by Marcelo | 20 Feb, 2004 at 10:11 AM | comments (3) | trackback (0)
Good news: Argentina grew 8.4% last year, surpassing even China. Context: Argentina shrunk 10.9% during the year before that, and we're still below 90's levels. But it's still mighty impressive....
argentina | by Marcelo | 20 Feb, 2004 at 09:54 AM | comments (3) | trackback (0)
Traffic perturbed
but no incidents; all sides
seem quite relieved.
argentina | by Marcelo | 19 Feb, 2004 at 08:14 AM | comments (3) | trackback (0)
So, it's 11 AM in Argentina, and "piqueteros" are closing (partially in some cases) all access to Capital Federal. There is a judicial order asking the government to guarantee the right to circulate, but in general the government's attitude is, as far as I can read it, "don't concede, don't...
argentina | by Marcelo | 12 Feb, 2004 at 04:05 AM | comments (7) | trackback (0)
Investment fund NML Capital Limited has secured inhibition orders on fifteen properties in the US owned by the Argentine government, in the latest development in thE Argentine Debt Wars....
argentina | by Marcelo | 06 Feb, 2004 at 07:14 AM | comments (2) | trackback (0)
Yesterday, a Maryland judge imposed an inhibition over the contents of a deposit belonging to the Argentine army. The measure is closer to a "reserve of rights" than to an embargo, but it does mean that there are now security guards preventing access to the goods inside the deposit. Ready,......
argentina | by Marcelo | 03 Feb, 2004 at 02:32 AM | comments (0) | trackback (0)
Argentina has asked Ecuador to retire its current ambassador in Buenos Aires for driving octogenary ex-represor Suarez Mason -who is under domicilary detention over the stealing of babies during the last milatary dictatorship- to a belly-dancing party in his birthday....
That's, Of Course, What I've Been Saying All Along
argentina | by Marcelo | 30 Jan, 2004 at 09:26 AM | comments (25) | trackback (0)
Everybody now seems to be joining me in scratching our heads in wonderment at exactly what the Argentine government thinks it's doing in the debt negotiation talks....
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argentina | by Marcelo | 30 Jan, 2004 at 08:21 AM | comments (23) | trackback (0)
In article from Argentina's Clarin (caveat: relatively pro-government these days), unnamed sources from a hedge fund wonder at Argentina's negotiation strategy. It is puzzling, really....
On Cognitive Dissonance And The Argentine Debt
argentina | by Marcelo | 29 Jan, 2004 at 11:56 AM | comments (22) | trackback (0)
Here's the thing that worries me: while neither the bond markets nor practically any sizable bank seem to believe that creditors will take Argentina's 25% offer, the Argentine government seems to be acting under the aparent certaininty that they will, because there's no other choice. Deliberate bluffing, a pose for...
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Uh-uh (Future Soybeans Blues?)
argentina | by Marcelo | 18 Jan, 2004 at 10:10 PM | comments (119) | trackback (0)
Monsanto -the worldwide leader in agricultural biotechnology- has announced that it will no longer sell GM soybean to Argentine customers given the extensive black market of seeds in the country. This is highly non-trivial news, as soy is one of Argentina's key economic engines....
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argentina | by Marcelo | 16 Jan, 2004 at 09:37 AM | comments (25) | trackback (0)
The city of San Luis, Argentina, has returned to the relatively normal political spacetime shared by the rest of mankind, where -for example- cities have only one elected major at a time. Luckly for us bloggers, it's likely to lapse into magical realism again any day soon, and if it...
argentina | by Marcelo | 15 Jan, 2004 at 11:58 PM | comments (57) | trackback (0)
It's the world's biggest game of chicken. Eighty-eight billion dollars on the stake, political consequences in three continents and effects that could ripple in the worldwide financial system. What's there not to like in the story of Argentina's debt negotiations?...
blog | by Marcelo | 13 Jan, 2004 at 01:27 PM | comments (28) | trackback (0)
This is an experiment on a more analytical way of approaching blogging, one step beyond the traditional "read news-post a comment-repeat" cycle....
argentina | by Marcelo | 13 Jan, 2004 at 01:24 PM | comments (56) | trackback (0)
It's not soccer, it's debt negotiations. And Argentina is playing the mother of all matches. The situation, as it stands, is simple: Argentina owes above a hundred billion dollars to foreign private creditors, and it's offering to pay about 25% of it. Creditors refuse the offer, and there are we,...
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