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Chile and the China Boom
economics | by Edward Hugh | 09 Jan, 2004 at 02:15 PM | comments (51) | trackback (0)
Is Chile the latest beneficiary of economic growth in China? The Chilean peso is at the moment the best performing currency in the world this year, having risen 1.5 percent to 556.60 per dollar in Santiago this morning , rising for a fifth day out of six. The peso has gained 6.3 percent in 2004, as of yesterday, as futures prices for copper surpass $1.1 per pound in New York, the highest level since 1997. "Copper prices have gone through the clouds,'' said Leonardo Suarez, an economist at brokerage Larrain Vial SA in Santiago. "That means better expectations of growth and in turn more capital coming into the country.'' The peso has been gaining ground as the outlook for domestic growth and stronger commodity prices have been attracting rising investment. A 22 percent rally by the Chilean peso last year has reduced the cost of everything from televisions to gasoline, and has lead to a slowdown in inflation and a reduction in lending rates late yesterday for the second time in a month. In fact each 10-cent gain in copper prices adds $1.1 billion of revenue to Chile's $66 billion economy. And the reason for this spectacular rise in copper prices, why China's economic growth. In fact such has been the shift in demand emphasis that Chile-based Corp Nacional del Cobre, better known as Codelco, the world's largest copper maker, has chosen to identify copper prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as one of its references for setting international prices. This move by Codelco shows the extent of the influence that China is beginning to have on global copper prices. The Codelco decision means that when doing business in Asia, copper prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be the main point of reference bringing the exchange to par position with the London Metal Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange.
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