Argentina's debt and an experiment on blogging
blog | by Marcelo | 13 Jan, 2004 at 01:27 PM | comments (28) | trackback (0)

This is an experiment on a more analytical way of approaching blogging, one step beyond the traditional "read news-post a comment-repeat" cycle.

Recall my model in the previous post about the conditions shaping the negotiations over Argentina's debt to foreign private creditors.


  • Q1: Could/Will judicial actions asssure payment above the government's offer?

  • Q2: Could/Will the Argentine offer be used as a precedent in other cases?

  • Q3: Can Kirchner's internally-generated support and surplus outlast the Argentine bonds and the country's need for investment?


My current feel about the variables is the following:


  • Q1: Possible, but unlikely.

  • Q2: Yes, but not extensively.

  • Q2: So far, it seems likely.

The important thing, anyway, is not my opinions, but how the problem gets partitioned. Now news items and personal observations can be analyzed based on how they affect these conditions, and thus the outcome, in a more precise and organized way. (Of course, the model itself is subject to change - I just wrote it in five minutes to have a starting point for this post.)

For a twist, what I would really like is for my aggregator to automatically factor how posts weight on these variables, and present me with a summarized "view of the blogsphere" about the issue. That's sort of possible right now, with a bit of extra metadata.

Behold the above opinions, in an oversimplified but machine-readable format:

wob:::marcelo_1 ArgDebt.q1:::- ArgDebt.q2:::= ArgDebt.q3:::+ .

The format looks awful, but it's both (somewhat) human-writable and machine-readable. The prefix 'wob:::' helps my aggregator see that the following is meant to be added to the "global summary". Then comes an unique post id (whatever you might want, a post URL would probably suffice) and a series of ::: pairs, where ArgDebt.q1 is the first condition on my list, ArgDebt.q2 is the second, etc, and effects '+' makes it more likely, '-' less likely, '=' doesn't affect it, and '+!'/'-!' makes it positively certain/false (use them sparingly). An space and a '.' finish the line.

The thing looks a bit like banging your head against the keyboard, but the benefits of these kinds of metadata are enormous, beginning with how they help you focus on how your post fits on the "larger picture". I don't claim that this format will be widely used or anything -it's mainly to help me tag and organize what I gather online-, but if you want to tag your posts yourself, you're more than welcome. Just drop us a note with your RSS feed, so I can direct it to our automatic summarizers.

" comments

Still trying to wrap my head around the feasibility of the idea...:

where would this tag go in the post? I assume it's some sort of XML, KEYWORD or META tag?

as a comparison, any idea how Rotten Tomatoes does their system? a little cruder, but does take a similar approach to qualitative assesments...

Posted by Mike Derham | January 13, 2004 03:02 PM

Just put the "wob::: " thing into the post itself, perhaps as the last line, or in fact anywhere that gets into the RSS feed (it even works with email). Part of the format overhead is there to make it easier to pick up from inside arbitrarily formatted content, parse and process. Once people in a feed are using it, it's fairly trivial to run the XML through a script to generate a summary.

Of course, the problem is convincing people to write it in the first place...

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