The Venezuelan Government devalued the official exchange rate today from Bs. 1600 per US$ to Bs. 1920 per US$. The move had been rumored for quite a while, since the 2004 budget used the new rate to calculate the Government's oil income for the year. However, there were doubts whether the devaluation would be postponed until after a possible recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez sometime in late spring. However, fiscal pressures apparently forced the Government to speed up the decision.

Exchange controls were imposed in Venezuela almost exactly one year ago. There is an informal parallel market which today hovered around Bs. 3100 per US$. The currency has devalued to these levels from Bs. 700 in February 2002. In typical economic doublespeak, the Minister of Finance announced that the measure will not add to inflation "because it had already been taken into account". Since most basic foodstuffs are regulated and receive preferential dollars for their import, the decision will affect the lower starta of the population the hardest.

while this relieves some pressure, the government is still (effectively) defending the bolivar at the tune of $1 for every $3 exchanged at the official rate (that it doesn't pay this explains why there's a black market).

so the underlying issue isn't address, and the official XR is overvalued 33%. when do they devalue again?

and if Chavez's base of support (what he has left) is in the lower strata, how badly does this erode his support?

There is no defense of the currency, the monetary base (M2) is US$ 15 billion at the new rate and international reserves stand at US$ 22 billion. The black market just feeds on itself, private money changing hands daily. The strict controls have created a paralell rate that is too high due to scarcity. However, this is the rate that sets prices.

The problems is fiscal, the economy has been stalled for two years and the Government is spending too much. They will devalue just because they need more money before the end of the year.

That is one of the great puzzles, how come people still support Chavez despite the decimation of their purchasing power. The guy has charisma and unfortunately the opposition has nobody comparable to draw these people away. However, I think this time the effect will be quite bad and he is sure to lose a good chunk of support among the poor.

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