The New York Times and the Washington Post both have front page articles unveiling Bush's new temporary worker plan to document illegal immigrants.

If you listen quietly, you can hear Vincente Fox dancing with joy.

The idea of documenting illegal immigrants has been discussed on and off between the US & Mexico for several years now. Fox made it a major part of his platform in 2000, and many observers expected Bush (as former governor of a border state) to be comfortable with the idea. There was discussion of some sort of updating of the bracero temporary worker plan of the 1960s leading up to 9/11. But the war on terrorism abruptly dropped Latin America off the adminstration's radar.

Since 9/11, advocates of a temporary worker program have argued that there are (about) 8 million people currently undocumented in the US: we might as well have them documented.

While there will be a struggle in Congress over the proposal (in particular, conservatives will argue this is rewarding people for breaking immigration laws), the initiative seems to be modeled on legislation previously circulated by Sen. McCain and two Congressmen (all from Arizona- another border state), so there is some groundwork already laid.

The main points of the inititative are:

• Undocumented workers in the US can apply for temporary legal status for three years. At the end of the three years, they can renew for a total of six (there may be more renewals possible).
  
• To apply for the legal status, they need to be sponsored by their employer, and there's a fee (to be determined) involved.
  
• Temporary workers can move back and forth between the US and their home country (in addition to just going home for the holidays, you could live in Ciudad Juárez and work in El Paso, for example)
  
• Temporary workers will get all the legal protections (minimum wage, etc) that permanent workers do.
  
• Green cards allowed for employement reasons would be expanded, and temporary workers can apply for one.

  Josh Marshall has a transcript of the conference call briefing reporters on the program. While the call is only sourced to two "senior administration officials", one is defintely Tom Ridge (Homeland Security) or a deputy, and the other I would guess is from the White House. Marshall is negative on Bush pushing for this program, but I think the administration will: it's a 'compassionate' program he can use to outflank his opponent in November.

  Ultimately, I'd be surprised if this didn't pass. But when it's introduced on the Hill and passed is another question entirely- it might not be until after the election, or even early 2005.

  The big winner in all of this is, of course, Vicente Fox. Among his other firsts, Fox was the first Mexican President to embrace immigrant workers as the pride (not shame) of Mexico. Fox has personally invested a lot in lobbying Bush for reforms that would reach even further than this proposed legislation. With the cooling of relations post-9/11, this was seen as one more failure of Fox's administration. With this announcement, as El Universal says: "[las] reformas en migración serían un apoyo para Vicente Fox."

  However, Mexican critics say the proposal doesn't go far enough. Jorge Castañeda is quoted in the Financial Times as saying "Mexico should be cautious about allowing small measures to be presented as 'huge reforms.'"

  The next developments in the story will be to see if Fox can capitalize on this PR victory to advance other stalled pieces of his agenda, in particular electric-sector reforms. Whether this results in a victory for Mexican illegal immigrants working in the US won't be seen for at least a year.

While I agree with the principles behind legitimizing illegal workers in this country, I'm concerned about the law's application. According to CNN, in order to receive working papers, illegal workers - or, more precisely, their potential employers - would have to demonstrate that no American citizen is available or interested in doing their job, thereby putting us in line with the policies already in place in most of Europe. While there may very well not be any Americans interested in doing unskilled labor, the application process entails costs that employers may not be willing to bear. Moreover, no matter how many "illegals" apply for the working papers, there will always be those that don't and - since such employees would not qualify for minimum wage - employers will always find a way to seek them out. In the end, I bet we'll be better since many of the "illegals" will be in the system, but the problem will be far from solved.

The comments from the administration officials (in the telebriefing transcript) get directly at your concern over employers' ability to "demonstrate that no American citizen is available".

The administration points out that there is a "market test" for American interst: namely, if an American was interested in the job, it would not have gone to an illegal immigrant (if immigrants came here and couldn't find jobs, goes the argument, they'd go back home). So if an illegal immigrant is working here already, they are already eligible for temporary status documentation. The burden of proof on employers is lighter than you suppose.

Not to say that there still won't be employers hiring illegal immigrants in the future it'll just be easier for them to keep their employees legally.

Let me follow that up with two quick points:

-First, from what I understand, this is an extension of a program already allowed for seasonal agricultural workers (the H2B Visa). The initiative would build on that and allow this type of visa to be used in service & manufacturing industries. Don't ask me about the success of the H2B, I haven't gone strawberry picking since high-school.

-Second, as a general clarification: for illegals immigrants in the US, this a one-off benefit. From comments both from the administration and Congressmen, the regulation would be something like: "To be eligible for this, you will have to have been working in the US as of date X. After that date, to be eligible, you have to apply from outside the US."

To paraphrase Joe Pesce, the administration's "market test" does not hold water. Whether or not Americans would be interested in an illegal's job is not relevant since employers hire illegals precisely because they are not American and thus have no legal rights (i.e. no right to minimum wage ) or opportunity for legal recourse (i.e. sue a boss for sexual harassment, dangerous workplace, unfair hours, etc.). No matter what the administration says about this policy being intended to improve the lifestyle of illegal workers, the reality is that is is all about accountability and entering as many people in the "system" as possible.

There's a (very cynical) school of thought that sees US economic policy towards Latin America as exchanging economic privileges for strategic goals.

In other words:

NAFTA/FTAA was (debatable) increased economic access in exchange for democratic stability/accountability. (the "democracy clause" in Mercosur, which has kept Paraguay from completely falling off the map, is an explicit example of this idea)

The Mexican (Tequila Crisis) bailout in Jan 95 was explicitly based on economic assitance in exchange for preventing a wave millions of immigrants crossing the Rio Grande (e.g. see Rubin's new book).

...and this would be increased "homeland security" in exchange for economic benefits to eight million working-class immigrants. That's the kind of realpolitik trade-off I can handle.

[and I can't resist: it's Pesci, not Pesce. when you're as rich as he is, you can afford more than one fish...]

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Actually all of this is extremely interesting, since there are strong rumours here in Spain that Aznar is about to propose something not just similar, but virtually identical.

This incidentally raises a lot of interesting questions about where the Spanish PP actually sees Spain's future after the structural fund subsidies dry up. I've been scratching my head and wondering about this ever since the Iraq war controversy. Still this is for another day.

What I can say, and based on my own research, is that there are at least (and I mean at least) 2 million undocumented immigrants working in Spain now. What proportion of these come from Latin America we don't know, but the percentage is high. Spain is definitely going for a closed door Morroco, open door LA policy. (Again seems to fit with the US shift in homeland security: basically raises the question of whether LA - or some countries in LA, maybe in fact Mexico is about to dry up, but Ecuador, Columbia, Bolivia, Peru... - could be converted into a kind of 'people farm' to meet Spanish, US and other needs. Don't forget Spain is in the process of becoming the oldest country on the planet, and desperately needs people to work).

Some idea of how many are coming to Spain from LA can be obtained by looking at the Spanish government response to an Argentinian request for info on visas: nearly half a million visas were granted to LA citizens in 2002, and about 50,000 people went back. 2003 saw many more than 2002. Now Spain is a much smaller country than the US, with no multicultural tradition, so you can imagine the impact is enormous.

Here in Barcelona every Parocchia has a queue of some length outside with women waiting to be contracted by families to look after the elderly relatives. Salaries are way below minimum wages. 400 euros a month for five days, ten hours a day is the 'recommended' rate. The men work either in construction or on the land.

And here we get to the important topics:

1/. To what extent is all this serving as an alternative to outsourcing, in situations like agriculture where the relevant factor (land) can't be shipped out. I mean what is happening is the downward pressure on global labour prices means that some activities only survive by using undocumented workers. If you have to pay minimum wages for normal hours you close and the job doesn't exist.

2/. This situation has tremendous implications for the Bush/Aznar guest-worker proposal, since obviously as you are suggesting those who become registered will be displaced, and more will arrive. I have the feeling that this is how you create pockets of unemployed immigrants, they get displaced by new arrivals as they legalise,they no longer have the same attraction for employers, and due to network dynamics they get stuck without mobility.

3/ All of this has important consequences for democracy in an ageing society. Large numbers of prople working and PAYING SOCIAL SECURITY without voting rights. You effectively have a gerontocracy of European descent in the heartlands of America, using cheap labour from external granjas, and trying to use the wealth created by this labour to tell the rest of the world how to live.

Have I got it, or is this too OTT?

I'd say your take is a good one Edward but I am not completely convinced that the net result will be that the immigrants will price themselves out of work.

I want to see what influence employers have over the determination of legal status. If they can basically veto the system by tarring a given worker as a trouble-maker then they actually gain bargaining power.

Edward: we may start imposing penalties for comments longer than the original post!

I can only venture a thought on your first question: I imagine this is not a substitute for outsourcing. A majority of the jobs filled by illegal immigrants are in the (non-information) service industries (such as janitorial- the example used in the teleconference is of a cleaner in a Holiday Inn), construction (which I don't think is covered by the current ag seasonal allowances), and retail positions (I think of the Walmart busts of last fall). Due to the local needs of these services, they cannot be outsourced to India or the Philippines.

As to whether paying a minimum wage to now-documented immigrants will result in some of these positions being eliminated: that is an argument used against having a minimum wage at all, and (nearly) all societies have been willing to make that trade-off. This just extends the right to a minimum wage further. (that's a brief answer that no doubt needs further discussion, but I think that should be the starting point to the discussion)

Finally, Messr. Carrol makes a valid point about legalization (which does require their approval) giving employers a veto and leverage on their employees. But then currently employers have the threat of turning their employees into la migra as leverage (and many of them use it). I don't see legalization as increasing employers' power of "turning them into the authorities", while it increases the rights of employees.

PS- (this is getting long!) Edward- care to venture a thought on what Italy will do? It is in a similar situation as Spain, and is currently trying to keep a closed door to N. Africa (and Albania), but doesn't have as close ties to Lat Am (Argentina excepted) as Spain does, and so can't use latino immigrants to fuel their pension system. So what you see as bad in Spain, I see as worse in Italy...

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